Written by Deborah Yedlin for CTV News
As the puck drops tonight on the 2026-2027 NHL season, amongst the mistakes players, fans and coaches fear is that of scoring on your own goal – especially if it is the difference between winning and losing.
That’s probably the best analogy available to describe what would happen to Alberta and its economic future if the referendum outcome on October 19th starts the province down the path to separating from Canada.
This morning, the Calgary Chamber of Commerce released the results of a study completed by University of Calgary economist, Trevor Tombe, showing the economic impact on the province were it to become independent.
From the fact Alberta is the most trade exposed province in the country – in both the national and international context, to the certain drop in investment, outflow of labour and relocation of businesses, there is nothing in the report that suggests we would be better off.
Let’s start with the fact that nearly one in three Albertans, about 900,000 people, works in a sector that trades with other provinces or country. That works out to about one-third exposed to trade with other provinces or international markets.
And it goes beyond energy.
It looks like this: More than 110,000 manufacturing jobs, 140,000 across finance, real estate and professional services, 65,000 connected to tourism and 31,000 to agriculture. It’s not insignificant.
But here’s where it gets interesting.
Calgary is even more exposed to trade – with more than 360,000 jobs in this city – or 36 per cent of employment, tied to exports to other provinces or countries. And while an independent Alberta would not see the jobs evaporate – it would significantly decrease the flow and costs of those exports. It’s hard to argue in favour of creating an international border for an already land-locked province that would need to strike new trade agreements with other provinces and lead to making Albertans better off.
Instead, the new procedures and different regulations would create more transactional friction – increasing both time and costs. Moreover, Alberta benefits from existing trade agreements negotiated by Ottawa for the benefit of every province. There is no guarantee those would be replicated for a small, sovereign state under the current terms that support trade. Mostly likely, there would be new costs to compensate for the attendant risk of dealing with a smaller – and still landlocked – jurisdiction.
The numbers just don’t add up.
Much has been said that this is Canada’s moment. But it is also Alberta’s.
We are on the precipice of an investment boom and economic growth cycle that hasn’t been seen in Alberta for more than a decade.
Between the Canada-Alberta Memorandum of Understanding, significant changes in legislation signaled with the Federal Government’s recently tabled Bill C-69, which, among other things, dramatically decreases the tax rates on investment, and commits to a one project, one review, one year approval process, there is every reason to believe projects that have been on ice, like pipelines, will move forward.
That is, unless there is a whiff of uncertainty.
According to Professor Tombe’s analysis – and using Brexit as a reference – Alberta could experience a drop of as much as $15 billion in foreign direct investment. That’s important – because right now the province attracts almost double that in per capita terms, $3,400 relative to $1,800 everywhere else in the country.
Take it another step further.
Decreased investment causes a self-fulfilling negative feedback loop. A predictable and stable investment climate attracts capital, creates jobs and increases the tax base. Without all of this, the opposite happens – including the prospect of businesses leaving – as well as Albertans.
For Alberta – and Canada – to build what is before us, we need labour and capital. Yes – Adam Smith still matters. And if there is one constraint being consistently raised, both in the province and across the country, it’s about meeting the demand for labour.
Another consequence of the lack of growth is the impact on public finances.
The drop in tax revenues, the need to establish and pay for services now provided by the federal government would require the province to close a $9 billion gap. That would require higher taxes – in the order of a 10 per cent higher corporate tax rate, or a sales tax that could reach 13 per cent.
This would kill the Alberta Advantage – something that all Albertans for decades have been proud of – in an instant.
At a time when there is enough economic uncertainty – from tariffs to international conflicts and the re-ordering of global trading systems – wreaking havoc on Canada’s economy, we need to leverage our internal strengths, not compromise them.
While nothing is perfect in a federation, there are far more opportunities working together, than apart. From incomes to economic growth, attracting the investment and talent needed to significantly increase the pace of development of our resources, this is not a time to cleave from a federation that we have benefitted from for almost 160 years.
Electing to do so would be the equivalent of scoring on your own net, in the last game of the Stanley Cup final – and losing it all.
