Business optimism declined by 26 per cent in 2025, lowest level since 2023
Calgary, AB, January 13, 2026 – While Calgary businesses are reporting fewer operational pressures related to labour and supply chains in Q4, overall confidence in the future continues to decline heading into the new year.
According to data analyzed through a partnership between Statistics Canada and the Canadian Chamber of Commerce’s Business Data Lab, several pressure points on businesses have eased. Only 40 per cent of Calgary businesses expect supply chains to worsen, down 27 per cent from Q1 2025. Businesses are also reporting less difficulty recruiting and retaining employees compared to Q3, along with fewer concerns about broader labour shortages. However, cost-related obstacles remain the dominant concern – with 58 per cent of businesses citing this as their biggest challenge, unchanged from Q3.
“While businesses are seeing signs of relief when it comes to labour and supply chain pressures, this has not translated into stronger confidence about the future,” says Deborah Yedlin, President & CEO at the Calgary Chamber of Commerce. “Persistently high costs and ongoing economic uncertainty continue to weigh heavily on investment decisions, offsetting these improvements and eroding optimism. We recognize all levels of government have made significant efforts to support businesses and we encourage this to continue as a way to reduce uncertainty and improve the cost environment for businesses.”
Despite these improvements, business sentiment has weakened considerably. The level of pessimism rose 16 per cent from Q1 2025 to Q4 2025, while optimism fell sharply over the same period – from 80 per cent in Q1 to 54 per cent in Q4 – marking the lowest level of optimism in three years. As a result, businesses are taking a more cautious approach to future growth.
“Without certainty, businesses delay critical growth decisions, including hiring, making investments and long-term planning,” adds Yedlin. “Persistent uncertainty of this magnitude risks stalling economic growth across Canada. Reducing business costs, continuing to eliminate regulatory barriers, decreasing internal trade barriers and building trade-enabling infrastructure have never been more essential – not only to support businesses today, but to secure the long-term prosperity of Canada’s economy.”
Chamber Recommendations
- Reduce cost burdens on businesses by investing in supply chain infrastructure, developing trade infrastructure and advancing relationships with key trading partners globally.
- Expedite regulatory processes through fast-tracked streamlined processes to ensure policy and regulation are not burdening businesses and stranding assets.
- Champion the development of trade-enabling infrastructure across Canada to improve trade opportunities, drive productivity and decrease the cost of transporting goods.
- Continue to bring down internal trade barriers, taking advantage of recent momentum across the country to remove exceptions and drive the efficient flow of goods, services and people.
- Support small businesses in accessing training and procurement opportunities to drive productivity and business growth.
Quick Facts
- Business optimism in Q4 2025 declined to a yearly low of 54 per cent – a 26-point decline from Q1.
- Business pessimism rose to a yearly high of 27 per cent – a 16-point increase from Q1.
- The share of businesses expecting supply chains to worsen dropped from 67 per cent in Q1 to 40 per cent in Q4.
- Labour related concerns declined in Q4, with 21 per cent citing difficulty in recruiting skilled employees (down 9 per cent) and 13 per cent citing a shortage of labour force (down 5 per cent).
- Cost-related pressures remain the top concern heading into 2026, cited by 58 per cent of businesses.
- Debt capacity improved slightly, with 23 per cent of businesses reporting they cannot take on additional debt – down 2 points from Q3 2025.
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About the Calgary Chamber of Commerce
The Calgary Chamber exists to empower our business community to advance a prosperous Calgary and Canada. As the convenor and catalyst for a vibrant, inclusive and prosperous business community, the Chamber works to build strength and resilience among its members and position Calgary as a magnet for talent, diversification and opportunity. As an independent, non-profit, non-partisan organization founded in 1891, we build on our history to serve and advocate for businesses of all sizes, in all sectors across the city.
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